Build a board-approved crisis and opportunity playbook that maps geopolitical triggers to defined responses.

Since the beginning of 2026, the international geopolitical environment has already shown significant changes compared to 2025. From the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine war to heightened tensions in the Middle East and recent developments in Venezuela, unpredictable geopolitical developments have created risk for commercial parties. The recent arbitration commenced by a Hong Kong-based company after the loss of its port concession in Panama is a further example of such geopolitical risk.

Given the significant and rapid changes in the geopolitical landscape that commercial parties find themselves in, it is more important than ever for commercial parties to be proactive in planning for and mitigating that risk. Parties should consider taking the following five steps:

Formulate an Action Plan in Advance to Anticipate and Navigate Risks

Build a board-approved crisis and opportunity playbook that maps geopolitical triggers to defined responses. Consider options for corporate restructuring to benefit from any available international investment treaty protection. If a treaty is available make yourself aware of any restrictions against, or requirements, to bring, local court proceedings. Businesses should undertake periodic risk assessments, including in response to material changes and events. The risks should include geopolitical change, sanctions and export controls, counterparty risks, natural disaster, change in law and more. Armed with an understanding of the risks faced a business can proceed to the establishment of mitigation plans and plans for crisis management including regulatory filings and approval pathways. You may also include action plans for supply chain disruption, asset freezes and payment blockage by identifying alternative options, counterparties and financing channels. Precleared template communications and authorization matrices (including use of company seals and delegated signing powers) should be prepared and approved beforehand. You may also want to maintain template notices (e.g., force majeure, change in law, hardship, suspension, impossibility to perform) ready for timely issuance. Maintain a watchlist of counterparties and jurisdictions with real-time monitoring and rehearse decision drills to ensure that operational teams can execute within hours, not weeks.

Preserve and Retain Documents as Evidence

The concrete steps to take in the face of materializing risks include:

1. Issue immediate legal holds across domestic and overseas affiliates covering emails, shared drives, instant messaging apps and device-stored data;
2. Suspend auto-deletion and ensure the information services department takes defensible snapshots of system data;
3. Create document maps identifying custodians, systems and locations (onshore, overseas, cloud);
4. Avoid creating new commentary on disputed facts and keep working files separate from privileged and confidential analyses;
5. Anticipate cross border data transfer controls;
6. Preserve originals, seals pages and wet-ink contracts, and retain delivery proofs for all critical notices; and
7. Consider that internally created documents may be disclosable in any dispute and that it may therefore be prudent for particularly sensitive information to be communicated by phone or in person.

Ensure Compliance with Contractual Notice Requirements

Parties should identify and keep track of all contractual time-bar and condition-precedent requirements (e.g., force majeure, delay, variation, termination, price adjustment, change in law, sanctions/illegality) and account for time zone differences in the time bars. The information database on notice requirements should contain verified, contractually mandated addressees, methods of communication (courier, email, portal), languages and formality (use of company seal or stamp or authorized signatory). Ensure that notices are served to all required parties (including lenders and/or insurers) and obtain robust proof of delivery. If facts underlying the situation are still developing, you may consider issuing protective and rolling notices, expressly reserving rights and avoiding admissions. You should also align notices with regulatory filings or license applications (e.g., export control or sanctions licenses) to avoid inconsistent positions.

Ensure That Claims, Defenses and Privileges Are Not Inadvertently Waived 

Use consistent reservation-of-rights language in correspondence and negotiations, mark settlement communications “without prejudice” (or jurisdictional equivalents) and segregate them from open correspondence. Avoid remedial actions that could be construed as affirming a repudiation or waiving a breach and consider standstill agreements to preserve limitation periods. Structure sensitive assessments through external counsel in the anticipated forum to maximize legal privilege and be mindful that attorney-client privilege operates differently in different jurisdictions. Implement a “clean team” for commercial and technical workstreams, maintain common interest arrangements for group companies, and vet public disclosures and regulatory filings for waiver risk. Scrutinize cross-border data and document transfers for state secrets and important data to avoid unlawful disclosures.

Instruct Experts and Lawyers Early to Assess Viability of Claims

Engage coordinated domestic and international counsel to stress‑test forum choices, seat and forum, governing law, enforcement pathways and interim relief options. You may want to retain sanctions/export‑control specialists to assess legality of performance and licensing routes, and quantum/valuation experts to model damages and mitigation. For investors with potential treaty protections, lawyers can perform an early investment‑treaty review and advise on political risk insurance notifications. In complex supply chains, you may also want to consider appointing industry experts (shipping, energy, commodities, technology) to establish causation and market practice.

For More Information

If you have any questions about this Alert, please contact Duncan Speller, Zheng Li, Mark Handley, Nahi El Hachem, Justin Li, any of the attorneys in our International Disputes Group or the attorney in the firm with whom you are regularly in contact.

Disclaimer: This Alert has been prepared and published for informational purposes only and is not offered, nor should be construed, as legal advice. For more information, please see the firm's full disclaimer.